Agent’s View: Are the expensive NFL running backs’ days coming to an end?

It might be difficult for Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley to reshape the running back market.

Running backs are not to blame if they feel like the underdogs in the team. NFL teams used financial caution while signing free agents. Miles Sanders failed to make the most of his career-high 2022 season with the Eagles, finishing seventh in the NFL in running yards with 1,269 and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns. His four-year, $25.64 million deal with the Panthers, which included $13 million in fully guaranteed payments and an average annual salary of $6.35 million, set the free agency running back market.

David Montgomery has the bargain that comes in second best. He signed a three-year, $18 million contract with the Lions. Guarantees total $11 million, of which $8.75 million was completely guaranteed at contract signing for Montgomery’s six-year, $6 million deal.

None of the three running backs with franchise tags for $10.091 million (Saquon Barkley of the Giants, Josh Jacobs of the Raiders, and Tony Pollard of the Cowboys) have committed to long-term contracts. At his youth football camp in Jersey City, New Jersey, over the weekend, Barkley voiced dissatisfaction with “misleading” leaks regarding his talks. This was in anticipation of the Giants’ required minicamp, which is scheduled for June 13–15 and to which he is not going.

In response to criticism that he was “greedy” for allegedly rejecting a contract worth up to $14 million per year with incentives before the franchise tag deadline of March 7, the NFL’s 2018 Offensive Rookie of the Year took issue with the label. Surprisingly, once an impasse was reached in March, the Giants withdrew their offer rather than simply pausing negotiations.

If he doesn’t have a new contract by the July 17 deadline of 4 p.m. ET for franchise players to sign long-term contracts, Barkley didn’t rule out sitting out the season, which is probably just posturing. Players with franchise tags are not permitted to sign multiyear contracts after the cutoff date until the conclusion of the regular season on Jan. 7, 2024.

In his contract battle with the Raiders, Jacobs claimed he is standing up for upcoming running backs. We don’t know what he wants in money. In 2022, Jacobs had a breakthrough year. He received All-Pro recognition with his 1,653 and 2,053 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards) leading the NFL, respectively.

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Financially benefiting from success is typically a given at most other positions when a player has a contract-year performance like Jacobs’. Jacobs would have a good chance of overtaking Christian McCaffrey as the highest paid running back in 2022 if he weren’t a running back due to his 2022 output. In 2020, McCaffrey agreed to a four-year contract agreement with the Panthers, averaging $16,015,853 per year with guarantees totaling $39,162,500. At signing, he had a running back-best $30,062,500 fully guaranteed.

Running backs making at least $12 million annually are becoming harder to find. By the completion of the 2022 campaign, there were eight such running backs. Five running backs (McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara of the Saints, Derrick Henry of the Titans, Nick Chubb of the Browns, and Joe Mixon of the Bengals) continue to make at least $12 million annually.

The poorest season of Ezekiel Elliott’s seven-year NFL career, the 2022 campaign, led to his release by the Cowboys in March. With a salary of $15 million annually, Elliott was the second-highest paid running back in the NFL. When the two-time rushing champion had two years left on his rookie contract in 2019, he agreed to a six-year, $90 million extension.

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To stay with the Packers, Aaron Jones accepted a pay cut from the backloaded four-year, $48 million contract he signed in 2021. To avoid the Packers cutting him go, he decreased his 2023 compensation from $16 million to $11 million while keeping his $12 million salary for 2024 in tact. Over the course of his first two years, Jones earned $20 million.

Dalvin Cook, who signed a five-year, $63 million extension in 2020, was just released by the Vikings following four seasons in a row with more than 1,100 yards of rushing. Alexander Mattison, who served as Cook’s backup throughout those seasons, will take Cook’s job and will be significantly less expensive. With incentives from his free-agent signing, Mattison signed a two-year, $7 million contract with the Vikings that could be worth up to $8 million.

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The problem will likely worsen next summer as a result of the exorbitant pay of running backs. Henry’s contract with the Titans expires in 2020 after he agreed to a four-year, $50 million agreement, averaging $12.5 million annually (worth up to $51 million through incentives). When he becomes a free agent in 2024 at the age of 30, Henry shouldn’t anticipate receiving a deal similar to his present one. For Mixon to complete the last year of the four-year, $48 million contract he signed with the Bengals in 2020, he likely needs to rebound from the 814 rushing yards he had in 2022.

The economic decline with expensive running backs may be cyclical, according to history. After several years of stasis, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson elevated running back pay in 2011 by agreeing to contracts that placed them among the NFL’s top five non-quarterback earners.

After a protracted preseason strike, johnson agreed to a four-year agreement with the Titans, averaging $13,493,750 per year and including $30 million in guarantees. The Vikings later offered Peterson a six-year agreement worth $85.28 million, or $14,213,333 per year, with $36 million in guarantees and an extra $4 million in basic pay escalators.

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A few years later, the running back market began gradually falling before reaching a low point in 2017. There were no longer any running backs with multiyear deals worth at least $10 million annually. With a five-year agreement from the Falcons that preseason, averaging $8.25 million per year, Devonta Freeman was the highest-paid running back.

When the Rams signed Todd Gurley to a four-year, $57.5 million agreement (worth up to $60 million with pay escalators) with $45 million in guarantees in 2018, a reversal started to happen. Gurley’s contract represents approximately a 75% raise over Freeman’s renewal at $14.375 million annually. Just over 1% more was added to Gurley’s significant market boost on average than Peterson’s 2011 contract.

Gurley’s contract wasn’t a market outlier, thanks in part to David Johnson’s evidence. Johnson agreed to a three-year, $39 million agreement with $31,882,500 in guarantees only hours before the Cardinals’ 2018 regular-season debut. Through incentives, the agreement was valued as much as $45 million.

A few challenges need to be overcome in order to arrest the downward running back salary spiral. Since Gurley initiated the salary hike, too many clubs have failed to see a positive return on their investment in elite running backs.

In the NFL, there is a school of thinking that claims a team shouldn’t provide a running back a highly lucrative second deal unless he has exceptional talent. This concept favors selecting a starting running back in the NFL Draft, putting less emphasis on workload control during the rookie deal, and continuing to use franchise or transition tags as needed until it is no longer practical from an economic standpoint. In addition, while the veteran is playing under a designation or at the end of the rookie contract, an effort should be made to find a suitable replacement in the draft. Only agreeable terms for the team should be used to resign the veteran. This prevents paying too much for a running back in his late 20s when his performance is likely to be declining due to excessive mileage and diminishing returns.

This school of thought occurs because the draft is filled with effective ball carriers. As a third-round pick, Kamara won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in the NFL in 2017. Despite having 2020 first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire as their primary ball carrier, the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII with Isiah Pacheco of the 2022 seventh round. Before Edwards-Helaire was forced to miss the Super Bowl due to a high ankle sprain in Week 11, Pacheco had already begun to make a name for himself. Because a sufficient number of running backs with top-tier salaries have underperformed on second contracts, the philosophy may continue to catch on.

One good thing has come out of Barkley’s venting. The March offer has apparently been re-presented by the Giants. Structure (total guarantees, amount fully guaranteed at signing, cash flow, etc.) may determine if an agreement is reached before the deadline of July 17. A timely Barkley agreement might be the impetus for Jacobs to sign a long-term contract.

Whatever happens with Barkley and Jacobs, there is another issue that is important to follow: Jonathan Taylor, a second-round choice in the 2020 draft, will make $4.304 million during the 2023 season, which is the final year of his deal.

The Colts have a history of extending rookie agreements for key players in their last year. Taylor compounds matters by coming off a 2022 season in which he had a career-low 861 running yards in 11 games behind an unreliable offensive line and was hindered by a right ankle ailment that necessitated offseason surgery. His 2022 performance stands in sharp contrast to Taylor’s brilliant 2021 campaign, when he was unquestionably the league’s finest running back.

With 2,171 yards from scrimmage, 1,811 yards running, 20 total touchdowns, and 18 rushing touchdowns, Taylor led the NFL. He averaged 5.5 yards per run while winning the rushing title by 552 yards. Taylor ranks third in yards from scrimmage (4,643), fourth in rushing yards (3,841), and fourth in touchdowns (36), all since entering the NFL.

It’s possible that the Colts are prepared to handle a large running back contract. After choosing Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall choice in this year’s draft, there won’t be a costly quarterback for some time.

Quenton Nelson and Shaquille Leonard, teammates, reshaped the offensive guard and off-ball linebacker markets last year and 2021, respectively. Even if the running back market is headed for a reset, it’s difficult to picture the Colts doing the same with Taylor, who is 24, considering his 2022 season. Running back is the only positional market that hasn’t risen since McCaffrey joined more than three years ago.